2025 Outlook: How Soon Before Chinese New - Car Makers Dethrone Tesla Model Y?

On January 10, 2025, Tesla's stealth-launched Refreshed Model Y ignited China's EV arena with its unannounced debut, triggering the year's first high-stakes industry showdown. The automaker's combative campaign tagline "Compare at Will" drew a terse "Game On" retort from Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun, catalyzing a coordinated counteroffensive by Chinese EV startups challenging Tesla's dominance.

Since its 2021 China launch, the Model Y series has been a thorn in Chinese new-car makers' sides. After four years of rivalry, a key focus for 2025 is which Chinese brand can dethrone Model Y as the sales champion.

New-energy SUVs priced between 200,000 and 300,000 RMB, like the ONVO L60, IM LS6, Zeekr 7X, LUXEED R7, Avatar 07, Li Auto L6, and AITO M5 and M7, are all gearing up for this challenge.

At the ONVO launch, William Li stated that the "L60 will rival the Model Y". Richard Yu promoted the LUXEED R7 as offering "Model X experience at Model Y prices."

Chinese new - car makers are keen to dethrone the Model Y in 2025. Their confidence stems from the progress in domestic NEV technology and innovation, which has enabled their products to surpass the Model Y in overall product strength, be it in specifications or real - life performance.

The key question is: Despite the great opportunity, how long will it take for Chinese new - car makers to unseat the Model Y, and can it happen in 2025?

Sales Reality

Before determining "How soon will Chinese new-car makers unseat the Model Y?", we need to first examine the Model Y's performance in the Chinese market.

Dominant

In 2024, Tesla's Model Y sold 480,000 units in China, averaging 40,000 monthly, topping all - price - segment NEV SUV sales.

The BYD Song PLUS, the second - best - selling NEV SUV regardless of price, sold 410,000 units, 70,000 fewer than the Model Y.

Within the 200,000 - 300,000 RMB price range, the AITO M7 was the second - highest - selling model with 193,000 units, less than half of the Model Y's annual sales.

Other "Model Y killers," like the Zeekr 7X, Avatar 07, LUXEED R7, and ONVO L60, were launched late and haven't fully realized their product potential.Official data shows the Zeekr 7X delivered 30,000 units in 75 days, the Avatar 07 delivered 11,000 units annually, the LUXEED R7 delivered 29,000 units annually, and the ONVO L60 delivered 20,000 units in 100 days. Their sales are insufficient to challenge Tesla's current market position.

fell short of the mark

Although Model Y's sales remain robust in absolute terms, when we look at growth rates instead of just raw numbers, its "glow" dims considerably.

In 2021, Model Y's total sales in China were 169,800 units, rising to 315,300 in 2022, 456,400 in 2023, and 480,000 in 2024.

Simple calculations show that Model Y's sales growth rates in China were 85.7% in 2022, 44.7% in 2023, and 5.2% in 2024.

The sales growth rate of Model Y in the Chinese market has "plummeted."

While Model Y's growth rate has fallen, China's new - energy vehicle market is growing rapidly. MIIT data shows that in 2021, China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate was just 14.8%, with total sales of 2.893 million units. In 2022, the penetration rate grew by 86.5% to reach 27.6%, and new - energy vehicle sales also increased to 6.887 million units.

In 2023, China's NEV sales rose to 9.49 million units, with the market penetration rate climbing 14.5% to 31.6%. In 2024, the total NEV sales reached 12.86 million units, giving a full-year market penetration rate of 40.9%.

From a macro perspective, comparing the data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, the sales growth rate of Model Y has not outperformed the market.

Another telling sign that Model Y hasn't outpaced the market is its sales share in China's NEV market, which has dropped from 5.9% in 2021 to 3.7% in 2024. This shows that even as China's NEV consumer base grows, the proportion of users choosing Model Y is shrinking.

In 2024, Tesla experienced its first global sales decline, selling 1.78 million units compared to 1.8 million in 2023. Instead of capitalizing on the rapid growth of the Chinese market to expand its advantage, Tesla saw a setback.

Another key indicator, "price," shows worrying signs for the Model Y. Since its 2021 launch, the old Model Y has had 22 official price adjustments. By January 2025, all three versions (rear-wheel drive, long-range, and performance) were at historical lows. Moreover, Model Y's price dropped steadily in 2024, unlike the mixed trends in 2022 and 2023.

In 2024, Tesla launched several financial incentives, including a "5 - year 0% interest" and "low down payment" policy launched in April. This indicates that Model Y's sales in 2024 relied more on low prices and Preferential policies than in previous years. Tesla's willingness to sacrifice some profit was crucial in preventing a sales collapse.

Despite maintaining a strong sales performance, Model Y's growth rate failed to outpace the overall growth of China's new - energy vehicle market. A "dark cloud" now looms over Model Y.

Why Not Choose

After discussing the data, we need to explore why it is so. What issues did Model Y encounter in consumers' decision - making?

After data mining, we interviewed five new car owners about their purchase decisions. Their answers surprised us.

Excluded

Mr. Wang, an IM LS6 owner, said he never considered Tesla during his car - buying process.

"I briefly looked into the Model Y but didn't include it in my final options due to its limited configurations, unappealing interior, and no significant space advantage," he explained.

When asked by Electric Planet, Mr. Wang revealed he mainly compared the Avatar 07 BEV Max Edition and Zeekr 7X before choosing the LS6 for its better chassis and looks.

Ms. Chen also ruled out the Model Y from the beginning. She gave two reasons: Tesla is too common, and as a civil servant, buying a Tesla might bring hidden inconveniences. So, when choosing a car, Ms. Chen mainly considered models like the IM LS6, ONVO L60, XPeng P7+, and Lynk & Co Z10. In the end, she bought the Zeekr 7X.

"These cars are all distinctive with appealing features, yet each has its drawbacks. For instance, the ONVO L60 has a longer waiting time. I eventually chose between the XPeng P7+ and the Zeekr 7X." The Zeekr 7X won for its "better handling and looks." The car - buying experiences of Mr. Wang and Ms. Chen show that at around 250,000 RMB, the Model Y isn't the "first choice" for some users and is even excluded from consideration. Even when compared with domestic new - energy SUVs, the old Model Y doesn't have a product - strength edge.

Veto

Mr. Chen and Mr. Zhu, followers of Electric Planet and owners of the ONVO L60, have their say. Mr. Chen, a former Model Y owner, found it less practical for family use, prompting his decision to switch cars.

He remarks, "The Model Y excels in handling and powertrain, making it ideal for solo driving, but it's less comfortable for passengers." He admits that he chose a domestic SUV mainly to enhance the comfort of his passengers. "The ONVO L60 offers higher configurations, more spacious interiors, and my wife finds it easier to drive than the Model Y," he explains.

Mr. Chen also highlighted some advantages of the ONVO L60, such as convenient battery - swap charging and usable highway navigation assistance. In his view, the ONVO L60 offers better basic and advanced experiences than the Model Y and is more affordable under the BaaS model, making it hard to refuse.

When choosing a car, Mr. Zhu mainly considered the Avatar 07, IM LS6, Zeekr 7X, ONVO L60, and Model Y. However, after experiencing other domestic new - energy SUVs, he lost interest in the Model Y.

"The most appealing aspects of the Model Y are its powertrain and five - year interest - free policy. If we talk about the interior, it's like an unfinished house, and the rear seats are like small benches. My wife passed on it after one look," said Mr. Zhu.

Mr. Zhu has done in - depth research on cars and can detail the advantages of other models. He thinks the Avatar 07 has a strong chassis and HUAWEI HIMA's intelligent driving system but offers average space and has a too " avant - garde " appearance. The Zeekr 7X has a good chassis, but his family has a low brand recognition. The IM LS6 has nice design and basic configurations, but its space doesn't meet their expectations.

It's clear that Mr. Zhu had specific reasons for choosing any domestic new - energy SUV, yet the Model Y was outright rejected. Finally, Electric Planet launched a Weibo poll titled "Which SUV would you choose with a budget of 250,000 RMB?", with a total of 92 netizens participating. The Model Y only garnered 29 votes.

Model Y remains the "top choice," but there is significant market share diversion to other options. The ONVO L60 secured 24 votes, while the Li Auto L6 received 12 votes. This indicates that Model Y still holds considerable market appeal, but the gap between it and its challengers has been significantly narrowed.

Turn the Tide?

However, the arrival of the refreshed Model Y could be an "X factor. "

With a comprehensive upgrade in design and improved range, the refreshed Model Y's product strength is objectively enhanced. But can this degree of improvement enable the refreshed Model Y to turn the tide?

Upgrade!

Let's first take a look at the upgrades of the refreshed Model Y.

In terms of appearance, the body lines and stance of the refreshed Model Y remain largely the same, with a length, width, and height of 4797×1920×1624mm and a wheelbase of 2890mm.

However, the front and rear designs have undergone significant changes, adopting a design language closer to that of the Cybertruck.

The interior upgrades align with the refreshed Model 3, featuring extensive use of textile - composite materials for a cleaner, more understated look, and eliminating the gear shift lever.

Upgraded base - experience is a highlight. The refreshed Model Y's two versions both have longer range than before. The rear - wheel - drive version, with a 62.5kWh battery and 19 - inch wheels, offers 593km range. The long - range version, with a 78.4kWh battery, can reach 719km.

In short, the refreshed Model Y is a "mid - cycle facelift". However, its price has risen to 263,500 RMB, up 23,600 RMB from the old version's starting price of 239,900 RMB.

Unofficial reports say the refreshed Model Y got 50,000 orders soon after presales started, showing great potential to become a blockbuster hit.

Demystify?

Not everyone is optimistic about the sales prospects of the refreshed Model Y. The reason is that the vehicle has not given the public a strong perception of "innovation" - something that Tesla models, including the Model Y, used to be known for.

In other words, the Model Y product line, including the new version, faces a core issue in the Chinese market: "consumer disenchantment." There are four main reasons for this.

Firstly, Tesla is no longer a leader in manufacturing innovation. For instance, Tesla pioneered and applied the "unified casting" technology in the Model Y, which once stunned the industry with a "40% cost reduction" and was widely imitated.

However, today, Chinese new - car makers have almost all adopted this technology and surpassed Tesla in the key metric of clamping pressure.

Second, the refreshed Model Y has no edge in body size or interior space versus Chinese new - car models. Compared with so - called "Model Y killers", they are larger in size and wheelbase, offering more spacious and versatile interiors.

Third, Tesla no longer has an absolute advantage in basic experiences like charging and range.

The Model Y is still an industry benchmark for energy consumption and range achievement, but its lead over competitors is not significant. Chinese new - energy SUVs can achieve longer real - world ranges by increasing battery capacity.

For example, the Zeekr 7X with a 100kWh battery, priced at 249,000 RMB (lower than the refreshed Model Y), offers a 780km CLTC range. In short, Chinese competitors can always find ways to counter Model Y's "traditional advantages."

The last point is the stagnation of experiential innovation. In the past, Tesla's significance in the Chinese market was in defining the "pure electric vehicle" category, including interaction logic and usage habits.

The refreshed Model Y only offers "visual" novelty, lacking new experiences in interaction.

Ironically, it retains the turn - signal lever, indirectly admitting the failure of the refreshed Model 3's "interaction innovation." Chinese consumers are becoming less enchanted with Tesla products.

In the end, the sales of Model Y may only rely on "brand power." An industry insider optimistically states that Chinese new - car makers can now match Tesla in experience. If Model Y relies solely on "brand power," losing its pure electric SUV sales crown is just a matter of time.

An Era of Fierce Competition

The Model Y may be dethroned as the top - selling vehicle by Chinese new - car makers in the not - too - distant future. This will bring certain changes to the market situation.

The current "one - superpower - with - many - strong - players" market structure may disappear, giving way to a "multi - giant era" of intense competition in China's new - energy vehicle market.

In this new era, the top - selling new - energy SUV position may change hands frequently, with different models taking turns to occupy the spot within certain time periods.

Models like the past - performing AITO M7 and Li Auto L6, or the rising ONVO L60 and Zeekr 7X, could take turns as sales champions. Dark - horse models from Avatar and IM Motors also have a shot. The Xiaomi YU7 and XPeng G7 launching in 2025, plus the refreshed Model Y, will also be strong contenders.

However, while the top - selling position might change hands easily, it's hard to find a dominant "king." This is because the core technologies of smart EVs are becoming saturated, making it difficult for any single product to have a significant sales lead over its evenly - matched competitors.

As a result, "details" will decide sales rankings. This includes the vehicle's intelligence (especially autonomous driving), interior space design and utilization, and overall design.

Chinese new - car makers should be more confident now, since the "details" mentioned above are their strong suit.

No wonder, after the refreshed Model Y urged others to "compare despitefully", Chinese brands like Xiaomi, HUAEWI HIMA, ONVO, Zeekr, and Avatar responded one after another. Supported by their product strengths, they can openly challenge and benchmark against the refreshed Model Y with confidence.

Nonetheless, the Model Y, selling nearly 500,000 units annually, is a giant with substantial "cushion" from its accumulated momentum. So, unseating it will be a relatively long process.

In 2025, we might not witness the moment when Chinese new - car makers dethrone the Model Y. But the shift from a one - sided situation to a balanced competition is a positive signal.