2025 Outlook: The End of the EV Anxiety Era

China's power battery sector ended 2024 on a golden note. Per the latest data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the nation's power battery loading volume reached 548.4 GWh in 2024, up 41.5% year-on-year.

SNE Research's data for January - November 2024 shows that Chinese battery firms held six of the top ten spots in loading volume, with a combined market share of 65.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023.

As a leading global power battery player, China's market and corporate moves impact the global industry.

In 2024, China's new-energy vehicle penetration rate stayed above 50% for six months, making NEVs mainstream.

The market has evolved from blue - ocean to red - ocean, with consumers demanding more. In the power battery field, 5C is becoming standard in vehicles above 200,000 RMB. NIO has over 3,000 battery - swap stations, CATL is adding 1,000, and Tesla is building energy - storage factories.

Yet, range, charging, and now battery - life anxieties persist.

Moving through 2024 and into 2025, amid fierce market competition, the era of new - energy consumer anxiety may be ending.

What aspects lie beneath people's anxiety? What can automakers, battery firms, and the government do to alleviate it? Let's explore these questions together.

High - Capacity New Batteries

In January 2023, Tesla ended the NEV price - hike trend, starting a price war.

Over two years, we've seen constant improvements in battery range and charging speed at similar price points. These incremental changes are becoming the most direct way to address consumer anxiety in China's auto market, which traditionally favors good value for money.

The industry has been sacrificing profits for market share, yet this has spurred technological innovation to cut costs.

Battery costs, accounting for 30% - 40% of a car's total cost, are crucial in reducing expenses.

A Goldman Sachs report in October 2024 projected the global average battery price would drop from $153/kWh in 2022 to $80/kWh in 2026, making NEVs as affordable as ICE vehicles.

In China's competitive market, this could happen sooner. From a supply chain view, lithium carbonate prices fell below 70,000 RMB per ton in 2024, and battery and carmakers innovated to reduce costs.

In 2024, consumers could buy a pure - electric car with a 75 - or 81 - kWh battery for 130,000 RMB, or a new model with 710 - km range for 160,000 RMB. In the mid - to - high - end segment (over 200,000 RMB), pure - electric cars with over 700 - km range became more common.

The essence of "good value for money" is either paying less for better batteries or further improving the performance of existing battery technologies.

In 2025, with the dual optimization of battery performance and cost, BYD and CATL remain standouts. However, in the broader industry context, every player is driving longer EV ranges and faster charging. Even leaders like CATL and BYD face challenges and competition from other battery manufacturers.

Downward "Involve"

Inclusiveness and aiming for high-end are two directions that battery enterprises can choose from.

The two giants will launch two "second-generation" batteries in 2025: CATL's second-generation sodium-ion battery and BYD's second-generation Blade Battery.

The former not only continues the advantages of the first-generation in terms of low-temperature tolerance and fast charging, but also has a lower price for sodium elements compared to lithium elements. Moreover, its low-temperature tolerance limit has been expanded from minus 20 degrees Celsius to minus 40 degrees Celsius. And Robin zeng has once stated that the research and development goal for its energy density is 200 Wh/kg.

For the latter, Wang Chuanfu has predicted that its energy density will reach 190 Wh/kg. The driving range of vehicle models equipped with this battery can exceed 1,000 km. People speculate that the second-generation Blade Battery may enter the market along with BYD Han L and Tang L, two mainstream flagship models.

CATL and BYD are dominant, but a growing trend is automakers turning to second - tier battery firms for second or third suppliers.

Firms like CALB, EVE Energy, and SVOLT are chosen for cost - effective models or low - spec versions of mid - to - high - end models. Automakers' greater bargaining power compared to CATL makes these second - tier firms appear more often in vehicle configurations and MIIT filings.

The Arrival of the 6C Era?

If Inclusiveness Focuses on Low - margin, High - volume Sales, then High - end Positioning Can Be Explained in Two Ways: One Is that Range Extenders Are Shedding the Tag of Slow Charging, and the Other Is that the Ultra - high Charging Speed of Pure Electric Vehicles Will Be Fully Popularized, Moving Towards an Average of 5C and 6C.

Today, with the Sales Volume of Range - extended Models Rising迅速, Battery Companies Are Striving to Match the Market.

We Can See CATL's Xiao Yao Range - extended Battery, Which Brings Range - extended Models into an Era of Over 400km Pure Electric Range and 4C Fast Charging. The Avita 07 Range - extended Version, the First to Use It, Helps Avita Deliver Over 10,000 Units Monthly for Many Months, and It Has Orders from Changan, Chery, and Zi Chi Brands from the Start.

And We Can See SVOLT's Honeycomb Short - Blade Battery. This Range - extended Battery Has 59 - kWh Capacity, 6C Discharge Rate, and 185Wh/kg Energy Density. It Boosts Discharge Energy by 50% at -40°C and Has a 15 - Year, 600,000 - km Life with Smart Control. Its Theoretical Product Strength Is on Par with CATL's Xiao Yao Range - extended Battery.

The Era When Range - extended Models Can Match Pure Electric Vehicles in Range and Recharging Speed Is Coming, and Battery R&D for Pure Electric Vehicles Is Also Making Progress.

The curtain for the 5C charging era was raised by the Li Auto MEGA, launched on March 1st. It features the Qilin 5C battery, co - developed by Li Auto and CATL, enabling a 500km charge in 12 minutes with a peak power of 520kW in tests.

CATL isn't the only one making progress. Power Battery, under Geely, has a second - generation Golden Brick battery with a 5.5C charge rate, reaching 80% from 10% in 10.5 minutes. The Zeekr 007, using this battery, can add 340km of range in 5 minutes.

Battery firms like CATL, Power Battery, CALB, EVE, and SVOLT are pushing for 5C adoption and paving the way for 6C.

Carmakers enhance range and efficiency through energy management and aerodynamic design, while battery makers innovate. Better batteries are on the horizon.

While traditional liquid - battery systems are progressing steadily, the solid - state batteries that emerged in 2024 are highly anticipated by the industry and consumers.

However, the exact timeline for their mass production remains uncertain.

Solid-State Batteries: Imminent but Not Yet Realized

On May 13, 2024, IM Motors introduced the L6 Max Light Year Edition at 345,900 RMB, possibly the closest step toward the solid - state battery era.

At the April 8 tech launch, Liu Tao, Co - CEO of IM Motors, said the L6 Max Light Year Edition uses the first - gen Light Year solid - state battery, highlighting its safety, no - explosion design, high energy density, and long range.

It paints a picture of boundless potential.

The Light Year Edition will be delivered in 2025. Even then, we don't see the dawning of solid-state batteries' widespread adoption. The L6 Light Year Edition's price in the 250,000 - 300,000 RMB pure electric sedan segment can't be seen as the final verdict. More importantly, the "Light Year solid-state battery" is essentially still a semi-solid-state battery.

This can be seen as a microcosm of the power battery industry. The R&D and mass production of solid-state batteries are more difficult than people imagine.

Wu Kai, the chief scientist of CATL, frankly said: "You might figure out solid-state batteries in a flash of inspiration, or you might spend three years and come up with nothing."

Solid-state batteries, with new structures and materials, pose challenges for companies in both R&D and production. Despite decades of development, key scientific issues, core materials, and technologies remain unresolved.

The mass production of solid-state batteries is predicted to happen between 2026 and 2030.

However, according to China's early - established power battery development roadmap, in 2025, semi - solid - state or solid - state batteries will see a wave of debuts. The roadmap indicates that by 2025, China's power battery energy density will reach 400Wh/kg for individual cells, 300Wh/kg for systems, with a battery life of 3,500 cycles or 12 years.

We can see that in 2025, Talent New Energy plans to complete the batch production of semi - solid - state battery sample packs and start vehicle installation in 2026. It also aims to achieve prototype validation of all - solid - state batteries in 2025 and demonstration installation in new - energy vehicles by 2027.

SAIC Qingtao's first full - solid - state battery production line is set to be completed and operational by the end of 2025, with an initial capacity of 0.5GWh. The first - phase product will have an energy density exceeding 400Wh/kg, and the second - phase will break 500Wh/kg, slated for mass production in 2026 and vehicle installation in 2027.

Other automakers and battery companies are also working hard. Volkswagen and Toyota plan to put solid - state batteries into production in 2025, while BMW will launch an electric vehicle prototype with solid - state batteries.

It should be noted that the truly "revolutionary" force in the power battery and electric vehicle industries remains the all - solid - state battery.

Semi - solid - state batteries, which contain electrolytes, still have their liquid components restricting the overall performance ceiling. However, both CATL and BYD, the industry giants, have set their small - scale production time for all - solid - state batteries in 2027.

Solid - state batteries are anticipated, but the first batch of new - energy vehicle owners are now experiencing their most anxious time.

The 8 - year Period Has Been Reached

China's new-energy vehicle subsidy policy，introduced in 2010，kicked off a period of rapid growth for the industry from 2014，when EVs were dubbed “electric dads” and battery tech was immature. Despite this, a group of early adopters supported the new technology. With a typical battery life of 8 years, the first batch of NEV owners in China, who have been driving since the sector's rapid expansion began in 2014, are now facing battery replacement.

Unlike the established power battery industry, the battery recycling sector is still fragmented and disorderly, with more used batteries needing recycling. This situation calls for urgent regulation.

Currently, the industry faces multiple issues, including a shortage of recycling facilities, low awareness among NEV users, and unclear responsibilities of automakers and battery manufacturers. These problems need to be addressed at a macro level.

According to SNE Research, the global scrappage of EVs is expected to reach 560,000 units in 2025, which is insignificant compared to China's total vehicle scrappage of 16.8 million units in 2023. However, the coming wave of EV scrappage, following a few years after the sales boom, will be urgent. The same growth rate of NEVs will lead to a pressing demand for scrappage services.

SNE Research forecasts that the global number of EVs to be scrapped will rise swiftly to 42.27 million by 2040, with the waste battery recycling market size projected to reach 230 trillion Korean won.

To tackle the recycling challenges and prepare for the growing market, the Chinese government released relevant documents on December 24, 2024, to regulate the recycling of spent NEV batteries.

The new regulations focus on four main areas: optimising the technical index system, updating standards, adding requirements for lithium-ion batteries in electric bicycles, and strengthening quality management and site selection.

For example, the new rules specify requirements for a company's registered and paid-in capital, such as a minimum registered capital of 10 million yuan and a minimum paid-in capital of 5 million yuan. They also stipulate a minimum annual capacity of 1,000 tonnes for staged use and 5,000 tonnes for regeneration. These measures aim to curb excessive expansion and boost overall capacity utilisation.

Additionally, the new rules encourage technological innovation by enhancing targeted requirements for various stages and technologies in the processes of staged use and regeneration.

The 2023 draft regulations on the comprehensive utilisation of new-energy vehicle power batteries also clarified the responsibilities of automakers and battery producers, assigning recycling duties for staged-use products to the enterprises engaged in such production.

The government and carmakers are both taking action. With intensifying competition in the new-energy vehicle sector, automakers, finding it hard to gain more advantages in vehicle manufacturing, are focusing on battery warranties.

Some, like Roewe and Zeekr, offer users lifetime warranties for the three electric systems, while others, like Tesla and CATL, highlight long - lasting batteries, with the latter launching a commercial vehicle battery with a 15 - year, 1.5 - million - kilometer lifespan.

The Chocolate Swap Network benefits from its service to a small number of vehicle models, enabling battery swaps in 1.5 minutes. NIO's expanding swap - alliance, joined by CCAG, Geely, Chery, etc., adds momentum to this trend.

This makes NIO William Li's 2018 statement, "We're not selling batteries but providing services," more compelling.

From government to market, efforts are made to safeguard user rights.

National battery - recycling policies and NIO's battery - separation policy, which addresses battery - life concerns for users, also present development opportunities for China's energy - storage industry.

Infrastructure Acceleration

How can we end the era of electric vehicle anxiety? The new-energy vehicle sector is making efforts across the board, from government policies to industry initiatives, and from battery chemistry to the separation of vehicle and battery business models.

Yet, up to now, our focus has primarily been on the vehicle itself. But over the life cycle of an NEV, the interaction with charging and battery - swap infrastructure touches every nerve of vehicle use.

In 2024, Li Auto made significant strides in the energy replenishment field. Despite falling short of its target of 2,000 stations, it completed 1,727 5C ultra - fast - charging stations.

NIO's pace of building charging and battery - swap stations slowed, but it achieved county - wide swap - station coverage in Jiangsu Province by year - end and continued advancing toward its goal of 1,000 stations.

In 2025, carmakers' enthusiasm for infrastructure has grown. Li Auto and NIO are expanding their networks. XPeng announced a partnership with Volkswagen in January to build China's largest ultra-fast charging network. Xiaomi has also joined the charging network of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto.

Moreover, CATL is on track to open 1,000 chocolate swap stations this year, with even more ambitious goals for the future. The development of the charging and swapping infrastructure is progressing steadily.

However, questions arise: Are the increasing number of charging and swapping stations truly making charging faster and more convenient? Have the costs of these stations decreased with the expansion of the charging and swapping network?

These questions highlight the challenges in balancing the power grid and charging and swapping facilities.

Nowadays, ultra-fast charging stations easily offer 480kW per - gun power, with Huawei's liquid - cooled ultra - fast charging and Xiaomi's upcoming stations reaching 600kW.

Although a single - gun ultra - high - power scenario is ideal, considering a charging station's grid capacity, power diversion under heavy loads is inevitable.

To solve this, the industry is exploring energy storage and integrated photovoltaic - storage - charging - swapping solutions.

Battery - swap stations, which are energy - storage devices, often co - locate with charging stations. Take NIO as an example. Its swap stations provide battery storage, charging, and delivery services, and can cooperate with the grid for peak - load regulate to maintain power balance. Combined charging - and - swapping stations can share transformers to cut costs and allocate power use reasonably.

Storing excess battery power is crucial for grid regulation. Tesla is building a massive storage facility in Shanghai. Once operational, it will produce 10,000 large - scale electrochemical storage systems annually, with a capacity of nearly 40 GWh.

These systems help the grid by storing power during off - peak hours and supplying it during peak hours, easing grid strain and cutting users' charging costs. They also address the remaining consumer concerns about EV range and charging.

The year 2025 marks the beginning of a new era where people no longer shun new - energy vehicles over charging, warranty, and range issues. With new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%, the key to winning over the remaining, more skeptical consumers is to alleviate their anxieties.

The new - energy vehicle industry will mature when we no longer see EVs stranded on highways during peak travel seasons, when charging stations aren't sites of fierce competition for chargers, and when older EV owners stop complaining about battery replacement online.