- China dealers forecast April retail sales at about 1.45 million passenger vehicles.
- VIA rose to 62.1% in April, signaling growing inventory pressure across all brand segments.
- Nearly 80% of dealerships expect Q2 year-on-year sales declines, with 41.4% predicting drops over 10%.
Latest data from the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that China’s Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) stood at 62.1% in April 2026, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points month-on-month, remaining above the contraction-expansion threshold.
Despite growing market buzz driven by the upcoming Beijing Auto Show and a wave of new model launches in late April, showroom traffic did not increase in tandem. Orders and transactions remained at relatively low levels.
Survey data indicates that short-term market momentum has weakened significantly.
More than 60% of dealers reported month-on-month sales declines in April, with only a small number of stores achieving modest growth.
The association estimates that terminal retail sales of passenger vehicles in April will reach around 1.45 million units, noticeably lower than levels seen at the end of the first quarter.
Inventory structure is also shifting. Amid weak demand, the inventory sub-index edged down to 55.7% month-on-month, while sub-indices for market demand, average daily sales, employment, and operating conditions all declined.
Regional divergence persists. The northern region index rose to 67.6%, significantly above the national average, while the eastern region stood at 59.7%, and the southern and western regions registered 60.1% and 62.5%, respectively.
By brand segment, the index for luxury and imported brands climbed to 67.5%, joint-venture brands reached 65.5%, and domestic brands stood at 55.3%, indicating rising inventory pressure across all categories.
Looking ahead, dealer sentiment remains cautious. Nearly 80% of dealerships expect year-on-year sales declines in the second quarter, with 41.4% anticipating a drop of more than 10%. Only 22.7% remain optimistic about growth.
May is expected to bring some recovery momentum. The Labor Day holiday, regional auto shows, and terminal promotions may help drive a rebound in foot traffic.
Meanwhile, order backlogs accumulated during the Beijing Auto Show are expected to gradually convert into actual sales in May and June.
However, a concentration of new model launches could lead to customer diversion and increased decision complexity, prolonging consumer wait-and-see behavior.
The association expects that a strong rebound in the auto market in May remains unlikely.
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