Entering December, the automotive market is in an adjustment phase as multiple consumer stimulus policies are phased out.
The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has released its forecast report for retail sales data of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) in December.
By mid-November, replacement and trade-in subsidy programs had been suspended in most provinces across the country. Consumer wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, and the automotive market performance has fallen short of expectations.
In November, retail sales of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1%. Among them, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles (narrow definition) for the full month totaled 1.321 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month growth of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate reaching 59.3%.
The CPCA expects that the retail sales volume of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) in December will be approximately 2.3 million units, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, new energy retail sales are projected to be around 1.38 million units, with the penetration rate expected to reach 60%.
Let’s take a look at the forecasted weekly trends for December:
Week 1: Due to the collective sales push by manufacturers at the end of November, market activity declined in early December. Daily average retail sales are expected to be 42,000 units, down 32.3% year-on-year and 7.8% month-on-month.
Week 2: Manufacturers leveraged “Double 12” promotions. Daily average retail sales are projected to be 67,000 units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 8.8% month-on-month, indicating some market recovery.
Week 3: Time-limited promotions have ended, but earlier orders continue to be delivered. Daily average retail sales are expected to reach 73,000 units.
Week 4: Consumer wait-and-see sentiment remains strong, and market growth momentum weakens. Daily average retail sales are forecasted to be 93,000 units.
Week 5: Manufacturers enter the year-end target冲刺阶段, with daily average retail sales expected to climb to 118,000 units.
Entering December, the automotive market is in an adjustment phase as multiple consumer stimulus policies are phased out. As the supportive effects of policies diminish, the market’s growth momentum is gradually shifting back to the normalized seasonal track dominated by supply and demand fundamentals.
Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, automotive industry associations and national government departments have issued announcements advocating against practices like cutthroat competition and price wars to optimize the industry’s competitive environment. This further encourages the market to gradually transition toward normalized, seasonal, and stable operations.
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