China Passenger Car Inventory Surges 19.4% to 3.57 Million in January 2026

Of the total 3.57 million vehicles in inventory, the manufacturer share stands at a historically high 32%.

Secretary-General Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) Releases Analysis Report on China’s Passenger Car Market Inventory for January 2026.

Data shows that at the end of January 2026, the national passenger car industry inventory reached 3.57 million vehicles. Although this represents a decrease of 80,000 vehicles from the previous month, it is a significant increase of 580,000 vehicles compared to January 2025, indicating that inventory pressure is markedly higher than in the same periods of previous years.

Looking at the retail market, national passenger car retail sales in January totaled 1.55 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month-on-month decrease of 32%.

Line graph depicting monthly sales trends of passenger vehicles in China from 2022 to 2026, with distinct lines representing each year. Key highlights include sales figures and variations across months. — Domestic Passenger Vehicle Monthly Retail Trend

Cui Dongshu pointed out that the reasons for the negative growth include the expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, the strengthened regulations and reduced subsidies of the new trade-in policy, and, at a deeper level, the fundamental issue of low consumer spending power and willingness.

Historical data shows that fluctuations in January retail figures are normal: between 2020 and 2025, January growth rates swung sharply between -38% and +58%. This year’s -14% growth is in the middle range of that historical fluctuation.

A bar chart displaying monthly forecasts and satisfaction indices over several months, with red and black bars indicating different percentages. — CPCA Pre-Month Forecast Index & Post-Month Satisfaction Index

It is worth noting that the CPCA’s forecasting team’s optimism about the market has been continuously declining since early 2025. In early February 2026, their satisfaction rate with the January market was only 17%, and their optimism for the February market has further dropped to 5%.

Line graph showing trends in inventory numbers for the automotive industry in China over several months, with multiple colored lines representing different categories: blue for Honghua, orange for joint investment, black for independent, red for foreign investment, green for new power, and yellow for overall statistics. — National Passenger Vehicle Industry Inventory Days

In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the existing inventory supports 70 days of future sales. This is on par with the 65 days in January 2023 and the 70 days in January 2024, but significantly higher than the 48 days in January 2025. The manufacturers’ share of inventory has reached 32%, indicating a high operational level.

A line and bar graph showing changes in pure electric vehicle inventory characteristics over time, with yellow and blue bars representing inventory types and a red line indicating the percentage of a particular variable. — Inventory Change Characteristics of NEV-Dedicated Manufacturers

Regarding the inventory structure, within the total inventory of 3.57 million vehicles, the manufacturers’ share is as high as 32%, a historically high level. This reflects the high production enthusiasm of manufacturers during the earlier period of positive market expectations, while channels’ willingness to stock up has become cautious around the Spring Festival.

Specifically, inventory for new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers has rebounded from a low of 620,000 vehicles in September 2024 to 720,000 vehicles in January 2026. While this is 160,000 vehicles below the peak, it represents an increase of 60,000 vehicles from the previous month, indicating significant inventory pressure within dealer channels.