CADA estimates terminal retail sales in September at around 2.2 million units, an increase of about 10.5% from August’s 1.991 million units.
China’s Automobile Dealers Inventory Warning Index stood at 54.5% in September 2025, according to data released on September 30 by the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA).
The figure was down 2.5 percentage points from August, but up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier, and it remains above the 50% boom-bust threshold—indicating continued weakness in overall market sentiment.
September is typically a high-volume sales month for the industry, but this year brought added complexity. Old-for-new subsidy programs in provinces such as Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan and Anhui were recently paused, adjusted or faced higher eligibility thresholds, dampening some purchase plans.
Still, seasonal demand tied to the back-to-school period, weddings and self-driving travel helped release some consumer appetite. End-of-quarter sales pushes and concentrated promotions at regional auto shows drove a noticeable rebound in retail orders in the latter half of the month.
According to the association, 54.8% of dealers reported that new vehicle sales underperformed expectations, while 45.2% said deliveries met or exceeded targets. Overall, September did not stall, but it also failed to ignite. Terminal retail sales are expected to reach around 2.2 million units, up roughly 10.5% from August’s 1.991 million units.
Structural pressures persist. Dealer foot traffic remains insufficient, lead conversion efficiency is low and natural showroom visits have declined. Price inversions continue, and inflexible operating costs are weighing on profitability. Although sub-indices for inventory, market demand, average daily sales, staffing and operating conditions all improved compared with August, the pace of recovery was limited.
By region, the national index of 54.5% breaks down as follows: 55.2% in the North, 52.7% in the East, 49.3% in the West and 61.9% in the South—the highest among all regions. By brand category, indices for luxury and imported, joint-venture and domestic brands all declined.
Looking ahead to October, the industry expects a “high start and flat finish.” The traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October,” combined with National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday traffic, a packed calendar of local auto shows and the continuation of some subsidy policies, is anticipated to deliver short-term support.
CADA estimates that 44.4% of dealers hold an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, expecting full-year terminal sales to grow 5%–10% year-on-year.
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