- China’s energy and transport systems are shifting as Sinopec projects NEV penetration reaching 75%–80% by 2030, driven by slowing but sustained adoption and widespread charging rollout.
- Sinopec estimates NEVs will displace about 56 million tonnes of oil in 2026 (roughly 1.2M barrels per day), and China now has roughly 23 million charging facilities, two-thirds private.
- NEVs are squeezing ICEs with NEV retail sales at 1.005M units in August and gasoline sales collapsing faster, though delivery timing, infrastructure strain and margin pressure could test automaker and charger expansion.
On September 10, a Sinopec researcher said China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate will continue to rise, though growth could slow as the market matures. The rate is expected to reach 75%-80% by 2030, Reuters reported.
Sinopec’s Economic and Technology Research Institute estimates that NEVs will displace around 56M tonnes of oil demand in China in 2026, equivalent to roughly 1.2M barrels per day, or nearly 15% of total refined-fuel demand. Gasoline vehicles account for about two-thirds of the displaced demand, with diesel vehicles making up the rest.
China’s NEV penetration rate has already reached a high level. It hit 65% in July 2026, up from 53% in 2025 and just 5% in 2020.
Electrification is even more advanced in public transportation. Sinopec said nearly all public transit vehicles in China are now electrified.
The rapid expansion of charging and battery-swapping infrastructure is also helping drive NEV adoption.
China now has around 23M charging facilities, roughly two-thirds of them private chargers. The rest are public facilities. Charging networks have expanded beyond major cities into smaller cities and towns, making the switch to NEVs easier for consumers.
William Li, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO, has offered a more aggressive forecast.
Li said China’s NEV penetration rate reached 65.2% in August and could exceed 70% in the fourth quarter. He expects NEVs to account for 90% of new-car sales in China by 2030, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 90% of NEV sales.
Li sees BEVs as the fastest-growing powertrain. Their penetration rate reached 45.3% in August, while both range-extender and plug-in hybrid models declined. Better driving range, faster charging and wider charging and battery-swapping networks are narrowing the convenience gap that has long held back BEVs.
Latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) also shows NEVs continuing to squeeze the internal-combustion engine vehicle market.
Retail passenger vehicle sales in China fell 23.6% YoY in August, while NEV retail sales reached 1.005M units, down 3.9% YoY. The decline was far smaller than the overall market contraction.
Conventional gasoline vehicle sales stood at around 540K units, down 40% YoY. Pure gasoline models fell 45%.
The shift in China’s NEV penetration is therefore not being driven solely by rapid NEV sales growth. The bigger change is the continued contraction of the gasoline vehicle market. Even when NEV sales decline YoY, their market share can still expand.
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