- China retail and wholesale volumes plunged across September 1–27, reflecting a 29% YoY retail drop and softer wholesale performance amid a weakened “Golden September” sales season.
- NEV demand remains the market driver with 827K NEV retail units (1–27 Sept), down 20% YoY but comprising 65.7% of retail and 70% of wholesale volumes.
- Competitive reality favors NEV makers over ICE incumbents as gasoline vehicle production collapses; risks include holiday-driven timing distortions, high comparison base, and margin pressure from intense replacement competition.
The China Passenger Car Association’s (CPCA) latest weekly data shows that passenger-car retail sales totaled 1.258M units nationwide from September 1 to 27, down 29% YoY but up 1% from the same period last month. Year-to-date retail sales reached 12.973M units, down 22% YoY.
Wholesale performance was weaker than retail. Passenger-car manufacturers wholesaled 1.474M units during the first 27 days of September, down 30% YoY and 12% from the same period in August. Year-to-date wholesale volume reached 18.657M units, down 7% YoY.
Weekly retail sales averaged 35K units in the first week, down 19% YoY, followed by 44K units in the second week, down 26%; 52K units in the third week, down 19%; and 54K units in the fourth week, down 42% YoY and 13% MoM.
The CPCA said the fourth week coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with staggered holiday schedules having a significant impact on retail sales. The 42% YoY decline was therefore considered normal. Wholesale operations were similarly affected, with average daily wholesale volume falling 46% YoY and 45% MoM to 67K units in the fourth week.
New-energy passenger cars continued to outperform the broader market.
From September 1 to 27, NEV retail sales totaled 827K units, down 20% YoY but up 2% from the same period last month. Year-to-date NEV retail sales reached 7.501M units, down 13% YoY.
NEV wholesale sales showed greater resilience, totaling 1.032M units during the period, down 11% YoY and 7% from the same period last month. Year-to-date wholesale volume reached 10.81M units, up 7% YoY.
NEVs accounted for 65.7% of passenger-car retail sales and 70% of manufacturer wholesale volume from September 1 to 27.
The contraction in conventional internal-combustion vehicles also continued. During the first three weeks of September, domestic production of gasoline-powered light vehicles totaled 330K units, down 52% YoY, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids combined reached 265K units, down 23%.
Overall, passenger-car retail sales fell 29% YoY in the first 27 days of September, showing that China’s traditional “Golden September” sales season has yet to materialize. The market has entered a deeply competitive replacement-driven phase, with most incremental demand concentrated in the NEV segment while demand for gasoline vehicles continues to shrink.
Persistently high oil prices are also weighing on consumer demand for gasoline vehicles, leaving NEVs as the main support for the overall auto market. A high comparison base from last year’s subsidy phase-out, combined with the staggered impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday on production and sales, has further amplified the YoY pressure this month.
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