- Goldman upgrades NIO to Buy and raises its price target, implying about 46% upside.
- Goldman forecasts 2026 deliveries up 43% and revenue up 60%, turning to RMB1.6B non‑GAAP profit.
- New ES8/ES9 product cycle and improved margins could narrow NIO’s valuation discount to peers.
Goldman Sachs has upgraded NIO to “Buy” from “Neutral” and raised its price target to $7 from $6.60.
Based on last Friday’s closing stock price, the new target implies an upside of about 46%.
In a research note, Goldman analyst Tina Hou said NIO is expected to rank among the fastest-growing new energy vehicle makers covered by the bank.
She expects NIO to achieve a significant turnaround in both profitability and free cash flow in 2026 while maintaining healthy margins in the premium vehicle segment.
The report forecasts NIO’s 2026 deliveries will rise 43% year on year, while revenue is expected to increase 60%.
Goldman projects the company will post Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.6 billion ($235.98 million), compared with a Non-GAAP net loss of RMB 12.4 billion ($1.83 billion) in 2025.
Free cash flow is also expected to improve from a net outflow of RMB 3.1 billion ($457.22 million) in 2025 to a net inflow of RMB 12.1 billion ($1.78 billion) this year.
Goldman believes NIO’s growth outlook stands out against a slowing Chinese NEV market.
CPCA data showed China’s NEV sales fell 14% year on year in the first half of 2026, while NIO’s deliveries rose 67.4% over the same period.
The bank expects China’s overall NEV retail market to grow by only about 1% this year, while NIO is projected to significantly outperform the industry through new model launches and improved delivery capacity.
On the product front, Goldman identified the all-new ES8 and ES9 as the company’s key growth drivers.
The report said the two models currently account for about 39% of China’s premium new energy SUV segment.
Combined with NIO’s brand positioning, vehicle size and pricing strategy, they are expected to remain highly competitive in the near term.
The ES9 recently became the fastest battery electric model priced above RMB 500,000 ($73,745) in China to reach 10,000 deliveries.
Meanwhile, the third-gen ES8 has ranked first in China’s full-size SUV segment and the RMB 400,000 ($58,996)-plus segment for six consecutive months.
Goldman also noted that NIO has completed continuous product upgrades over the past four quarters, improving the competitiveness of its lineup.
The bank expects the same product renewal strategy to be extended to the 5 Series and 6 Series models.
As more vehicles complete generational updates, Goldman expects sales of these products to recover further from 2027, supporting additional market share gains.
NIO shares are down 6% year to date. However, Goldman said the company continues to trade at a valuation discount relative to other pure-play EV makers under its coverage.
Based on its forecasts, NIO’s 2026 and 2027 price-to-sales multiples are expected to trade at discounts of 25% and 29%, respectively, while its projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratio is about 17% below peers.
Goldman believes the valuation gap could narrow as the product cycle improves and profitability strengthens.
Goldman’s view broadly aligns with Wall Street consensus. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, 20 of the 28 analysts covering NIO currently rate the stock “Buy” or “Strong Buy.”
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