Goldman Sachs Sees Xiaomi EV Sales Topping 1 Million Units in 2028

Recently, international investment bank Goldman Sachs released a dedicated research report on Xiaomi EV, providing detailed quantitative forecasts for the company’s sales scale over the next several years.

The report forecasts Xiaomi EV sales of 500K units in 2026, 770K units in 2027, and potentially exceeding 1.036M units in 2028, aiming for the 1 million-unit annual sales mark.

Based on the sales breakdown by model in the research report, Xiaomi’s sales growth will be driven by a dual product matrix covering sedans and SUVs.

In the projected annual sales for 2026, the SU7 series is expected to contribute 223K units, the YU7 159K units, and the new Pengcheng range-extender SUVs N90 and N70 will begin adding incremental volume, delivering 53K and 64K units respectively.

For 2027, overall projected deliveries are 770K units. The SU7 and YU7, as the two core models, are expected to contribute 220K and 195K units respectively, maintaining a stable base. Skynomad N90 and N70 range-extender SUV sales are forecast to rise sharply to 110K and 240K units, while a new large SUV model will add 40K units in new sales.

By 2028, Xiaomi will add another midsize sedan model, with a multi-model lineup pushing overall sales to 1.036M units.

Goldman Sachs’ bullish view on Xiaomi EV is mainly based on two core advantages. The first is Xiaomi’s unique human-car-home ecosystem barrier. Leveraging Xiaomi’s massive consumer electronics and AIoT installed user base, Xiaomi EV has differentiated competitiveness in smart cockpits and multi-device connectivity — a user base that most traditional EV startups find difficult to replicate.

The second is Xiaomi’s mass production delivery capability. Since the SU7 and YU7 went into production, combined deliveries of the two models have exceeded 700K units as of July 2026, with production ramp-up performance ranking among the top tier of Chinese EV startups.

However, behind this optimistic forecast, practical constraints are equally prominent.

Production capacity is the first hurdle on the path to the 1 million-unit target. Xiaomi’s Beijing Yizhuang base currently has three phases of vehicle plants, with a total designed annual capacity of 450K units. Under dual-shift full-load conditions, theoretical peak capacity could approach 600K units per year, but in practice, production line debugging, mixed-model production and other factors limit short-term output.

In addition, Xiaomi’s second base in Wuhan broke ground in June 2026, with a planned annual capacity of 300K units. It is expected to be completed and put into production in the fourth quarter of 2027, mainly producing range-extender models.

To achieve 1M deliveries in 2028, Xiaomi needs to complete production ramp-up before the Wuhan base goes into operation, while ensuring the Beijing base’s capacity utilization remains consistently high.

However, beyond these constraints, Xiaomi still faces considerable difficulty in achieving annual sales of 1M units.

First, the current overall environment of China’s auto market is not favorable. According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association, passenger vehicle retail sales in July 2026 reached 1.506M units, down 18% year over year. From January to July, cumulative passenger vehicle retail sales reached 10.207M units, down 20% year over year.

At the same time, while China’s NEV penetration continues to rise, this segment is also under pressure. July NEV retail sales reached 970K units, down 2% year over year. From January to July, cumulative NEV retail sales reached 5.675M units, down 12% year over year.

Over the past few years, NEVs have experienced a period of explosive sales growth, and household vehicle ownership in China has continued to rise. Combined with subsidy phase-outs and rapid model iteration, consumers have become more inclined to wait and see, and domestic demand growth has slowed significantly.

In stark contrast to domestic demand is the red-hot Chinese auto export sector. From January to July 2026, cumulative auto exports reached 6.4M units, up 54% year over year. July exports reached 1.092M units, up 57% year over year. Total auto export value from January to July reached $110.8B, up 55% year over year.

The data suggests that many domestic automakers will shift their growth focus to overseas markets in the future.

Xiaomi is no exception. According to Lu Weibing’s remarks at Investor Day, Xiaomi will officially go global in Q3-Q4 2027, with Europe as its first destination and Germany as the initial launch market. On the export path, Xiaomi adopts a gradual strategy: “premium first, then mass-market; developed markets first, then emerging markets; left-hand-drive first, then right-hand-drive.”

Xiaomi will replicate its new retail model from the consumer electronics sector, leveraging thousands of Xiaomi Home stores globally to rapidly build a sales network combining direct experience and authorized partnerships — a channel foundation that most Chinese automakers lack in the early stages of going global.

Given this timeline, Xiaomi’s sales growth from 2026 to the first half of 2027 will still mainly rely on the Chinese market. This means that in a weakening domestic demand environment, delivery pressure from 2026 to the first half of 2027 cannot be diversified through overseas markets.

But in the longer term, if Xiaomi can successfully convert its consumer electronics brand recognition into automotive sales momentum, overseas markets will become a key variable for medium-to-long-term sales breakthroughs.

Looking at short-term performance, Xiaomi has internally set a full-year delivery target of 550K units for 2026. Cumulative deliveries from January to July total approximately 220K units, meaning less than half of the target has been achieved.

To meet the internal target, the remaining five months would require average monthly deliveries of 66K units.