China’s Green Vehicle Roadmap 3.0: Targets Over 80% NEV Penetration by 2040

Roadmap 3.0 states that by 2035, traditional energy passenger vehicles will achieve full hybridization.

On October 23, the China Society of Automotive Engineers officially released the “Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0.” As a top-level plan guiding China’s automotive industry toward 2040, Roadmap 3.0 for the first time proposes a dual-driver strategy of “product technology” and “manufacturing technology,” clarifying three major transformation directions: low-carbonization, electrification, and intelligentization.

Roadmap 3.0 sets six major goals for 2040, with the most landmark ones being:

1. The market penetration rate of NEVs will exceed 80%, driving the comprehensive electrification of the automotive industry;
2. The total carbon emissions of the automotive industry will peak ahead of schedule in 2028, and by 2040, emissions will decrease by over 60% compared to the peak;
3. L4-level intelligent connected vehicles will be fully popularized, and L5-level technology will begin entering the market.

Based on Roadmap 3.0 and the market sales breakdown structure data compiled by the Passenger Car Association from January to September 2025, Cui Shudong, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Association, created the “Strategic Trends of the New Energy Technology Roadmap” chart.

From a technical pathway perspective, the simultaneous advancement of multiple energy routes will be key to breakthroughs in China’s automotive industry. Roadmap 3.0 further affirms that internal combustion engines will remain an important power source for vehicles. By 2035, traditional energy passenger vehicles will achieve comprehensive hybridization; by 2040, vehicles with internal combustion engines (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range) will still account for one-third of passenger vehicle sales.

Zhang Jinhua, Chairman of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, added that the commercial vehicle sector will focus on the large-scale application of fuel cells, with the estimated fleet size reaching 4-5 million units by 2040.

In terms of intelligentization, Roadmap 3.0 proposes that vehicles will evolve into “smart mobile spaces,” with end-to-end AI-based architectures becoming the mainstream solution for intelligent driving. By 2030, L2-level and higher autonomous driving will be fully-scale popularization in passenger vehicles, and L4-level operational vehicle sales will reach the “hundreds of thousands” level.

Roadmap 3.0 first introduces a smart manufacturing technology cluster, proposing the integration of all links—”R&D, production, supply, sales, and service”—through data connectivity. By 2040, automotive manufacturing will achieve four major goals: quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, cost reduction, and low-carbon transition, supporting the construction of a “new automotive” ecosystem. Meanwhile, an “average carbon emission intensity” indicator is introduced for the first time, aiming to reduce passenger vehicle carbon emission intensity by 60% by 2040 compared to 2024.