High Exit Risk for Low-Volume Multinational Automakers in China

From January to October 2025, the market share of domestic brands surged to 65%, while that of foreign brands fell to 35%.

At the China EV100 Forum 2026 media communication conference, Zhang Yongwei, Chairman of China EV100, expressed the view that multinational automakers with annual sales of less than 100,000 vehicles have an over 80% probability of exiting the Chinese market, and it is estimated that 5-6 companies will be affected.

This judgment is based on the continuous contraction and deep adjustment of the market share of multinational automakers in China in recent years.

Public data shows that in 2020, domestic brands held only a 36% market share, while foreign brands dominated with 64%. However, from January to October 2025, the market share of domestic brands has surged to 65%, while foreign brands have fallen to 35%. More notably, the market share of multinational automakers plummeted dramatically from 70% in 2014 to 34.8% in 2024. In 2024, sales of multinational brands fell below 10 million units for the first time, reaching only 9.593 million units, a year-on-year decline of 10%-30%.

Zhang Yongwei pointed out that over the past five years, a “scissor-like adjustment” has formed between foreign and domestic brands, posing significant challenges for multinational automakers.

China EV100’s research directly links the risk of exit to market scale. Currently, there are over 45 wholly foreign-owned and joint-venture vehicle enterprises in China, accounting for about 40% of the total passenger car companies. Among them:

• Automakers with annual sales below 100,000 units have an exit probability of >80%, with an estimated 5-6 companies affected.
• Those in the 100,000 to 300,000 annual sales range face an exit probability of 50%-80%, affecting an estimated 4-5 companies.
• For the 300,000 to 600,000 annual sales range, the exit probability drops to 20%-50%, affecting an estimated 2-3 companies.

Insurance registration data indicates that over the past year, companies such as Dongfeng Peugeot Citroën Automobile (DPCA), Chery Jaguar Land Rover, smart, Changan Lincoln, Changan Mazda, and Jiangling Ford have all recorded sales below 100,000 units, placing them at the edge of danger. Brands like Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Fiat, Chrysler, and Renault have already withdrawn from the Chinese market one after another.

Sales data for the first half of 2025 shows that although some multinational automakers still maintain a leading position, they generally face challenges of weak growth or even decline.

In the first half of the year, the Volkswagen Group sold 1.313 million vehicles in China, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. BMW Group’s car sales in China during the same period were 318,000 units, down 15.5% year-on-year, making it the region with the largest decline among BMW’s major global markets. The situations for Mercedes-Benz and Honda are also not optimistic, with their cumulative sales in the first half of the year declining by 14% and 24.2% year-on-year, respectively.

Facing the changes in the Chinese automotive market, mainstream multinational automakers are accelerating their strategic transformations.

For example, Volkswagen has invested in establishing a China Technology R&D Center to develop the CMP architecture exclusively for China; Toyota has set up an Electric and Intelligent Vehicle R&D Center, adopting a local chief engineer management model; Audi has equipped its vehicles with Huawei’s Qiankun Intelligent Driving system; BMW is collaborating with Momenta to develop a China-exclusive intelligent driving solution; General Motors has granted 100% authority for new product definition to its local team, and so on.

These strategic adjustments indicate that multinational automakers are reevaluating the Chinese market.